Omicron could surge in January, says OCTA

THE country could see a surge driven by the Omicron variant of Covid-19 in January or February, a member of the OCTA Research group predicted on Friday.

OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David, however, said that such a spike “will not be as bad as in the past due to vaccination and our past experiences — we will be able to manage it.”

David said the number of daily cases during that period could reach 5,000.

He added it is not likely that a lockdown will be clamped in the National Capital Region (NCR) to fight the surge.

Another OCTA fellow, Ranjit Rye, said the outlook for December “is positive and optimistic, based on the very good data that we have been monitoring for the last month.”

“The trends say that Covid-19 is in decline, not just in the National Capital Region, but in our country,” Rye said.

He urged the government to continue its testing, tracing and isolation protocols, as well as increase border surveillance.

“While we can enjoy a merry Christmas this year, it is important for us to do so in a safe manner. That’s why we encourage our citizens to consider getting vaccinated if they aren’t yet, and for those who have been vaccinated for over six months, to consider having themselves boosted,” he said.

A comparison of the data from November 26 to December 21 with the data from the same period in 2020 shows the situation has improved. The group also called for a more detailed analysis of the new positive cases, specifying how many of the new infections were vaccinated and unvaccinated, highlighting that vaccination lessens the risk of hospitalization and death.

“In our daily report, we should report the number of infected, differentiate those vaccinated from the unvaccinated, and then in the number of those hospitalized and asymptomatic, and count how many of those hospitalized were vaccinated so we’ll know vaccine efficacy when we compare them to the hospitalized unvaccinated,” proposed OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Michael Tee.

Presenting the data could boost the public’s belief that vaccination works and that it is the way to safely reopen the economy and bring back face-to-face classes.

Also on Friday, the Department of Health (DoH) said that vaccine supplies would remain available even if the government started administering booster shots to all adults aged 18 and above.

Booster doses are now available in all of the country’s vaccination sites.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the government has revised its targets from inoculating around 70 million individuals to around 54 million.

“Ngayon po, almost 37 million ang (Now, we have almost 37 million who have been) fully vaccinated, and we only need around 17 million and we will be able to reach the target,” Vergeire said during her regular briefing on Friday.

Vaccine supply is not even an issue, since the country is scheduled to receive as much as 30 million doses this month, and the present government stockpile is enough for primary and booster doses.

She also assured that even with the administration of booster shots, primary doses will not be set aside as local governments and vaccination sites have been instructed to prioritize the unvaccinated.

Vergeire said the DoH will adjust the booster recommendations once the World Health Organization Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) releases its final recommendations by the second week of December.

Health Undersecretary and National Vaccine Operations Center chairman Myrna Cabotaje said 8 million individuals received jabs during the three-day vaccination blitz from November 29.

Around 2.8 million individuals were jabbed on December 1, the highest figure during the blitz.

Vergeire and Cabotaje said the DoH is also discussing with AstraZeneca to see if the more than 14,000 doses that have expired in Negros Occidental can still be administered safely.