PH economy seen rising 6.6% in‘22

THE Philippines is one of the economies in the Asia-Pacific region that will expand faster next year, according to Oxford Economics.

In a report released on Friday, the research firm said the Philippines, along with Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, would all see greater economic development in 2022 after being impacted by huge interruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic this year.

Most economies are changing to a “living with Covid” strategy as immunization programs reach their target levels, research group pointed out.

“Indeed, across much of EM (emerging market) Asia,” it underscored, “there is a sense of wanting to ‘move on,’ as hinted at by the marked improvement in mobility as their respective recent virus outbreaks have ebbed.” In fact, Oxford Economics implies gradually removing remaining prohibitions on high-contact domestic service sector activities and reopening to inbound and outbound tourism, although the new variation may cause these plans to be postponed.

Given that the Asia-Pacific region lags well behind the United States and Europe in these areas, it believes that many Asian economies will have room to accelerate in 2022, even as the Unites States and Europe stagnate. “Indeed, given the scope for catch-up from the worst of the crisis, we expect Indonesia, Malaysia, [the] Philippines and Vietnam to all grow by 6 percent or more next year (nearly double the pace achieved in 2021) . . .,” the research firm said.

It forecasts a 6.6-percent increase in Philippine gross domestic product in 2022, up from an anticipated 4.6 percent this year. The projection is lower than the government’s objective of 7- to 9-percent growth for the coming year.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) said in its Fiscal Risks 2022 report released also on Friday that the growth forecast for next year will be aided by the timely implementation of the fiscal program in 2021 as well as the effective rollout of the vaccination program.

“The Philippine economy is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by end-2022 or early 2023,” it added.

Consumer and business confidence are projected to stay good, the DBCC continued, as limitations are eased both locally and internationally. Domestic demand and external trade are likely to increase as vaccinations become more widely available, benefiting both the industry and services sectors.