Covid cases to peak in September or October

CASES of Covid-19 are expected to peak by September or October this year, an official of the Department of Health (DoH) said on Thursday.

Dr. Alethea de Guzman, DoH-Epidemiology Bureau director, however, said that instead of focusing on forecasts on case increases and bed utilization rates, the public should change its mindset on how to prevent these projections from happening again.

“Right now, we are seeing an increase in the hospital utilization rate, and we do not want the projections to come true. We need to control them,” de Guzman said at a vaccination event in Quezon City.

She said that continued adherence to the minimum health standards, as well as the booster vaccination campaign, might help stem the rise in cases.

Based on the Health department’s data, as of August 4, the hospital utilization rate across the country was at 29.8 percent, of which 25.4 percent are intensive care unit (ICU) beds.

In Metro Manila, the bed occupancy rate was at 39.4 percent, of which 29.4 percent are ICU beds.

The region is now experiencing an average increase of 800 cases per day. But de Guzman said that the increases do not translate to increased hospital occupancy.

She added that this was due to the help of local government units to assess and triage cases, the availability of antiviral medicines such as paxovid and molnupiravir, and the continued vaccination campaign.

“Hospitals have decreased their dedicated [Covid-19] beds as compared to what they have allocated. However, we still need to curtail the case increases as they could possibly lead to more admissions,” de Guzman said.

She said that hospitals are also ready to increase their bed capacity in accordance with the government’s “accordion” policy.

Gloria Balboa, DoH-Metro Manila Center for Health Development director, said that most cases in the region remain mild and asymptomatic and most of them do not need hospitalization.

“We are also strengthening our telemedicine services because we are promoting home care management in asymptomatic and mild cases, and if needed, we will do more telemedicine services to them,” Balboa said.