As Ukraine heats up again, Asia cools — for now

MONITORING and moderating global security and economic risks is already daunting with three years of the pandemic, two years of escalating inflation and interest rates, and over a year of Ukraine conflict and Taiwan confrontations. And it’s set to get even tougher this year and next.

The most urgent concerns have to be the ongoing haggling between the White House and Capitol Hill over raising the federal debt ceiling imposed by law on the United States government. If the US Congress fails to enact a law lifting the debt limit, Washington may start defaulting on its Treasury bills — the most widely held financial asset making up the bulk of international reserves held by nearly all countries and countless banks.

On the geopolitical front, Russian troops, led by the Wagner mercenaries, have defeated Ukrainian forces in the key city of Bakhmut, which even Western governments and media have acknowledged.

Two immensely worrisome questions now arise: Will the well-armed and -trained Russian troops, estimated at more than 700,000 north, east and south of Ukraine, launch a massive offensive to destroy its forces and force it into neutrality? And will the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) do more to stop Moscow’s invasion beyond supplying Ukraine with weapons and covert “volunteer” fighters? The answers could determine if war spreads across Europe and further exacerbates global economic and financial disruptions.

The US and China talk again

Turning to Asia, maritime frictions heated up with Vietnam taking issue over not just Chinese vessels but also Philippine Coast Guard buoys in its claimed exclusive economic zones in the Spratlys, west of Palawan, and the Paracels, between Vietnam and China. Hanoi told Chinese vessels in the Paracels to leave but was ignored.

In the East China Sea near Japanese-occupied Senkaku Islands, also claimed by Beijing as the Diaoyutai, Tokyo reported intrusions by China Coast Guard vessels on May 11, 12, 14 and 20.

Meanwhile, construction of facilities for use by American forces proceeded apace with 14 reported projects, including a runway in Balabac, off the southern tip of Palawan, one of nine military bases opened to the US by the Marcos government.

Plus: there have been recent talks between the Philippines and Japanese, Australian and Canadian foreign ministers toward greater security cooperation. And President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. launched two more missile patrol boats and declared the plan to acquire the country’s first submarine.

As for the biggest hotspot, Taiwan actually seemed to cool down. For months, the island had called for and welcomed international support against China’s threat to invade if the self-ruled territory moved toward independence.

That included Taipei’s immediate positive response to the May 1 joint statement of US President Joseph Biden and visiting President Marcos in support of peace in the Taiwan Strait.

But on May 20, Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen seemed to ease away from past assertive remarks of standing up to China with foreign backing.

In a speech marking her seventh year in office, she vowed to maintain the status quo of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan, she said, would not provoke Beijing but would also not bow to mainland pressure.

And after some months of nil Sino-American dialogue on security, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese foreign policy chief Wang Yi met in Vienna on May 11 in what both sides called “candid, substantive and constructive” discussions.

While Beijing still has not agreed to Washington’s request for a meeting of defense chiefs, the Sullivan